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今次呢個問題係有少少複雜, 我都用左個幾鐘睇資料. 呢度整理好, 希望大家花些少時間了解一下.

首先, 測試COVID-19病毒主要有兩種方法: (註1)
1)PCR測口水/痰中的病毒RNA, 最準, 但要在lab用機check, 所以慢同貴.
2)血液中抗體(antibody)的快速測試, 可以直接在診所做, 所以快, 但要睇病人身體產生抗體的速度. 頭幾日一定冇抗體 (看下圖); 之後重症病人出抗體出得快, 輕症出得慢. (註5)


今次英國公共衛生部話唔得的, 就係第二種測試. 問題係本來抗體快速測試就係有上面講的限制. 但英國公共衛生部就諗住用佢來對輕症甚至冇病徵的人測試, 自然測得唔準! 以我的理解, 英國公共衛生部除了試驗中國生產的抗體快速測試, 也有試驗其他地方出產的抗體快速測試, 都係一律唔合佢要求.(註2,3,4) 只係報紙只拎中國生產的出來炒作.

打個比喻: 就好似有個客人去茶餐廳要一杯珍珠奶茶, 伙記話:冇珍珠奶茶, 得奶茶要唔要? 客人話照落左先. 結果伙記比左杯奶茶佢, 客人番屋企同老婆講飲左杯奶茶冇珍珠. 個老婆本來就係憎間茶餐廳, 所以四圍唱間茶餐廳呃人.

如果真係要數邊個錯, 最錯係英國公共衛生部一開始有唔合理期望. 英國醫療儀器不足, 唔可以好似德國咁比所有要測試的人去哂做PCR.(註1) 但政府又誇下海口要做大規模測試. PCR機一時之間買唔切, 亦太貴. 估計英國公共衛生部就係壓力之下摶一摶, 訂價錢比較平的抗體快速測試. COVID-19病毒係一隻新病毒, 大家未完全掌握佢的特性. 如果病人的抗體出得夠快夠多夠一致, 其實用抗體快速測試的效果仍可以接受. 但結果係原來抗體出得慢; 重症出得多, 輕症出得少, 出來的結果就係驗唔到好多輕症的病人的抗體.

反中的英媒, 就拎住部份試劑係中國生產呢點大造文章. 其實已有英國的專家指出今次應該唔係試劑的質量問題, 而係病毒的特性本是如此. (註5) (補充: 亦有英國的科學家直指對於當局在對病毒未有足夠的知識時就買入數百萬計的試劑感到驚訝. (註5) ) 本來本住科學精神, 英國公共衛生部應該出來澄清其實唔係中國試劑的質量問題, 而係病毒和抗體本身的特性以及他們用了抗體快速測試來做非原本設計的工作. 但咁去澄清的話, 即係認自己入錯貨, 自己要揹鍋. 所以英國公共衛生部好大機會扮唔知, 由得英媒話係中國貨的問題.

下面會有相關的文章.

[ 本帖最後由 阿聞 於 2020-4-9 06:22 PM 編輯 ]



註1) Coronavirus: Testing and why it matters
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51943612
- The tests currently being used in UK hospitals are to see if somebody currently has Covid-19.
These are done by taking a swab of the nose or throat, which is sent off to a lab to look for signs of the virus's genetic material.
The other type of test the government wants to use is an antibody test. These are done to see if someone has already had the virus.
So far, antibody tests have not proved to be as reliable.

- Health Secretary Matt Hancock said last week that 15 of the most promising antibody tests had been tested, but none was good enough.
Prof John Newton, who is overseeing testing, told The Times that tests bought from China had been able to identify antibodies in patients who had been seriously ill with coronavirus, but didn't pick up the milder cases.

- Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: "We have the best scientific labs in the world but we did not have the scale. My German counterpart for instance could call upon 100 testing labs ready and waiting when the crisis struck."
At first, Public Health England was only using its own eight laboratories. This has been expanded to 40 NHS labs - so, 48 labs in total.
South Korea, which has been able to test far more widely than the UK has, acted very quickly to approve the production of testing kits, allowing it to build up a stockpile.
Despite having a slightly smaller population than the UK, it has twice as many labs and about two-and-a-half times the weekly testing capacity.
Germany has carried out more than three times as many tests as the UK.
By 27 March, it had tested 1,096 per 100,000 citizens, while as of 1 April, the UK had tested 348 per 100,000 of the population.
That compares with 895 per 100,000 for Italy, 842 per 100,000 for South Korea, 348 per 100,000 for USA and 27 per 100,000 for Japan.


註2) How does a coronavirus antibody home test kit work, and how do I get one?
https://theunionjournal.com/how- ... d-how-do-i-get-one/
Who can get a coronavirus home test?
In concept, anybody would certainly have the ability to get a test from Amazon orBoots Last month, the Government purchased 3.5 million fingerprick examinations, primarily from Chinese producers, and later on put provisionary orders for 17.5 million examinations from 9 companies consisting of some based in the UK.
None of the examinations were discovered by Oxford to be trusted sufficient for mass usage.


註3) False positives undermine  corona antibody tests: Experts
http://saudigazette.com.sa/artic ... ibody-tests-Experts
This week, the UK’s Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that no G7 country has yet developed a test that could say with certainty whether a person who recovered from coronavirus was immune.

註4) Coronavirus (COVID-19): scaling up our testing programmes
https://www.gov.uk/government/pu ... -testing-programmes
These antibody tests are brand new. In fact, they are still being developed and there is not yet one that has been proven to work as we would require. No government in the world has yet rolled out a full COVID-19 antibody testing programme.
We are currently engaged with several companies and are urgently testing the quality, accuracy and effectiveness of potential tests with scientific experts and regulators. We have bought some antibody testing kit stock on the basis of minimum initial volumes to enable clinical testing. If the outcome of this is that the antibody tests do not work, no further tests will be purchased and, where possible, orders will be cancelled.

The Lancet: Developing antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30788-1/fulltext

“英國採購中國抗體試劑盒不達標”?中企回應:請看說明書
https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2 ... rcuyvh6615836.shtml

英國新冠病毒檢測劑為啥不准
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id ... r=spider&for=pc

[ 本帖最後由 阿聞 於 2020-4-9 01:40 AM 編輯 ]



[update]
註5)Coronavirus 'game changer' testing kits could be unreliable, UK scientists say
https://www.theguardian.com/worl ... e-uk-scientists-say
- A senior UK scientist who is working on lab-based antibody testing for Covid-19, said that given the current state of knowledge he was “amazed the government had sufficient confidence” to go ahead with the purchase of millions of tests. “A lot of us did a double-take,” he said.

- Dr David Ho, a leading infectious disease specialist at Columbia University in New York, said that, based on patient samples analysed by his team, those with severe illness tend to develop a faster and stronger antibody response. In people with milder symptoms, the presence of antibodies in the blood tends to ramp up more slowly, meaning that tests need to performed later.

“The problem is after a couple of weeks, the detection rate remains at about 50%-60%, especially in asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases,” Ho said. “But this may not be a fault of the tests, because even using more sensitive methods in the lab we can see the antibody levels are quite low.”

[ 本帖最後由 阿聞 於 2020-4-9 05:34 PM 編輯 ]



350萬套都唔合格? 佢地用晒350萬套黎試?


[隱藏]
支持樓主!


引用:
原帖由 lpj88 於 2020-4-9 12:54 AM 發表
350萬套都唔合格? 佢地用晒350萬套黎試?
No. 可以係350萬套來自多間廠. 當係10間廠, 每間35萬套. 當其中一間廠拎100個樣本來個測試, 試完唔啱佢心水, 其餘果35萬套就一律算做唔合格.

[ 本帖最後由 阿聞 於 2020-4-9 08:55 AM 編輯 ]



支持廣傳


引用:
原帖由 lpj88 於 2020-4-9 12:54 AM 發表
350萬套都唔合格? 佢地用晒350萬套黎試?
按樓主引述嘅資料,呢响檢測劑唔係唔合格,只係檢測劑嘅檢測成效本來就有藥物性限制,而且英國用冇病徵或抵病徵嘅人做檢測,檢測劑就更加難準確測出抗體。

[ 本帖最後由 ntworks 於 2020-4-9 08:31 AM 編輯 ]



引用:
原帖由 ntworks 於 2020-4-9 08:28 AM 發表


按樓主引述嘅資料,呢响檢測劑唔係唔合格,只係檢測劑嘅檢測成效本來就有藥物性限制,而且英國用冇病徵或抵病徵嘅人做檢測,檢測劑就更加難準確測出抗體。 ...
冇錯。其實本來英國公共衞生部的講法只系話試劑用來做大規模測試唔夠好。但英媒自動翻譯成中國試劑唔合格。



[隱藏]
推!希望多些人了解!


引用:
原帖由 阿聞 於 2020-4-9 12:50 AM 發表
今次呢個問題係有少少複雜, 我都用左個幾鐘睇資料. 呢度整理好, 希望大家花些少時間了解一下.

首先, 測試COVID-19病毒主要有兩種方法: (註1)
1)PCR測口水/痰中的病毒RNA, 最準, 但要在lab用機check, 所以慢同貴.
2)血液中抗體(antibody)的快速測試, 可以直接在診所做, 所以快, 但要睇病人身體產生抗體的速度. 頭幾日一定冇抗體 (看下圖);  ...
辛苦c兄了🙏🙏



引用:
原帖由 阿聞 於 2020-4-9 12:50 AM 發表
今次呢個問題係有少少複雜, 我都用左個幾鐘睇資料. 呢度整理好, 希望大家花些少時間了解一下.

首先, 測試COVID-19病毒主要有兩種方法: (註1)
1)PCR測口水/痰中的病毒RNA, 最準, 但要在lab用機check, 所以慢同貴.
2)血液中抗體(antibody)的快速測試, 可以直接在診所做, 所以快, 但要睇病人身體產生抗體的速度. 頭幾日一定冇抗體 (看下圖);  ...
第二種 以抗體為測試目標的, 東張西望都有搵醫生講過(因為有網購及診所有得賣), 的確有其限制, 與樓主你講既完全符合



引用:
原帖由 伍皓昌 於 2020-4-9 02:19 PM 發表

第二種 以抗體為測試目標的, 東張西望都有搵醫生講過(因為有網購及診所有得賣), 的確有其限制, 與樓主你講既完全符合
冇錯. 其實抗體快速測試有可能出現抗體唔夠而驗唔到的缺點, 英國公共衛生部的醫生冇理由唔知. 所以我估佢係想搏一搏. 搏中左, 大部份人出抗體出得好, 就成功解決政府比佢的任務; 搏唔中, 大部份人出抗體出得唔好, 就唔知佢係唔係一早諗好比隻鑊中國, 定還是反中英媒錯機炒作.



3樓UPDATE.


[隱藏]
道理我明 但香港人我估大部分睇唔明佢個邏輯 
最後又係比毒媒洗腦


唉 點解香港人分析能力咁弱架 
高等教育水平既人口咁多
但冇幾個會理解事情
真係覺得香港冇咩未來



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