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The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of “eye-opening” war games by the Pentagon.

American defence sources have told The Times that simulated conflicts conducted by the US concluded that their forces would be overwhelmed. One war game focused on the year 2030, by which time the Chinese navy would operate new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.

The analysis also found that Beijing’s accumulation of medium-range ballistic missiles has already made every US base and any American carrier battle group operating in the Indo-Pacific Command region vulnerable to overwhelming strikes. The Pacific island of Guam, a base for American strategic bombers such as the B-2 and B-52, is now considered wholly at risk.

“China has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic [more than five times the speed of sound] missiles,” a US defence source said, meaning that US carrier groups could not oppose their Chinese counterparts “without suffering capital losses”.

The conclusions, described as “eye-opening” by one source, are supported by the most recent analysis provided by America’s leading experts on China.



根據五角大樓的一系列“令人大開眼界”的戰爭遊戲,美國將在與中國的海戰中被擊敗,並將努力製止對台灣的入侵。

美國國防消息來源告訴《泰晤士報》,美​​國進行的模擬衝突得出的結論是,他們的部隊將不堪重負。 一場戰爭集中在2030年,屆時中國海軍將使用新型攻擊潛艇,航空母艦和驅逐艦。

這項分析還發現,北京積累的中程彈道導彈已經使印度太平洋太平洋司令部地區的每個美國基地和任何美國航母戰鬥群容易遭受壓倒性打擊。 關島是美國B-2和B-52等戰略轟炸機的基地,現在被認為完全處於危險之中。

美國國防部一位消息人士說:“中國擁有遠程反艦彈道導彈和高超音速(超過聲速的五倍)導彈,”這意味著美國的航母集團不能“不遭受資本損失”地反對中國的同伴。

這些結論被一個消息來源稱為“大開眼界”,得到美國有關中國的領先專家提供的最新分析的支持。



Every simulation that has been conducted looking at the threat from China by 2030 have all ended up with the defeat of the US,” Bonnie Glaser, director of the China power project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a consultant for the US government on east Asia, said. “Taiwan is the most volatile issue because that could escalate to a war with the US, even to a nuclear war.

“In the Pentagon and state department and the White House, China is now seen as the biggest threat. We have been too passive in the past.”

Beijing has stepped up its military activities in the South and East China Seas, harassing ships, militarising islands whose sovereignty is claimed by others and sabre-rattling over the planned reincorporation of Taiwan. President Xi has said he wants the island back under “One China” by 2050 and is prepared to use force.

The US has no defence pact with Taiwan but has increased arms sales to help it to build a deterrent. US concerns are expected to be highlighted in the Pentagon’s 2020 China military power report, which is due in the summer.

A defence source said that repeated warnings by Admiral Philip Davidson, the regional commander, and a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons to counter the Chinese threat had led to a significant switch in resources. “Mark Esper [the defence secretary] is aggressively moving to build the capabilities that we need to deter China from committing to a major confrontation,” the source said.

Hypersonic weapons are viewed as key to taking out China’s ballistic missiles capability, and the US also plans to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. Marine units are also to be armed with anti-ship missiles, along a string of islands enclosing China’s coastal seas.

President Trump announced yesterday during a White House ceremony to receive the flag of the Space Force from military leaders that the US was developing a “super-duper missile”.

“We are building incredible military equipment,” he said. “We have, I call it the super-duper missile, and I heard the other night 17 times faster than what they have right now, when you take the fastest missile we have right now. You’ve heard Russia has five times and China’s working on five or six times, we have one 17 times.”

US relations with China have deteriorated to their lowest ebb in decades as President Trump blames it for weakening the economy, and for its attempts to hide the extent of coronavirus. Although those rows have yet to result in a direct confrontation, the US intensified its trade war yesterday, announcing that it had commissioned a Taiwanese company to open a computer chip factory in Arizona to “re-shore” technology industries away from China.

Washington also announced that it would restrict the ability of the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, which it considers a national security risk, to develop products abroad that use US technology. Beijing hit back, saying it was ready to put US companies including Apple on its “unreliable entity list”.

US presence in Asia-Pacific

South Korea
28,500 troops
90 combat aircraft
Patriot missile launchers
THAAD (terminal high-altitude area defence) anti-missile battery

Japan
50,000 troops
100-plus combat aircraft
Patriot missile launchers

Guam
12,000 troops
THAAD missile batteries
Location for B-2, B-52H and B-1B strategic bombers

At sea
USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier battle group
17 destroyers and cruisers with Aegis ballistic missile defence interceptors



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華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心中國電力項目負責人,華盛頓諮詢公司顧問邦妮·格拉澤(Bonnie Glaser)所做的所有模擬研究,都針對2030年來自中國的威脅而最終以美國戰敗告終。 美國政府對東亞表示。 台灣是最動蕩的問題,因為這可能升級為與美國​​的戰爭,甚至是核戰爭。

“在五角大樓,國務院和白宮,中國現在被視為最大的威脅。 過去我們太被動了。”

北京加強了在南中國海和東中國海的軍事活動,騷擾船隻,毀其他國家要求擁有主權的軍事島嶼,並對計劃中的台灣重返台灣感到不安。 習主席表示,他希望到2050年使該島回到“一個中國”之下,並準備使用武力。

美國與台灣沒有防禦協議,但增加了武器銷售以幫助其建立威懾力。 五角大樓的2020年中國軍事力量報告預計將在今年夏天強調美國的擔憂。

一位國防消息人士說,地區指揮官菲利普·戴維森海軍上將的再三警告,以及五角大樓內部為資助高超音速武器來抵抗中國威脅的努力,導致了資源的重大轉變。 消息人士說:“國防部長馬克·埃斯珀(Mark Esper)正在積極採取行動,以建立我們所需的能力,以阻止中國進行重大對抗。”

高超音速武器被認為是奪取中國彈道導彈能力的關鍵,美國也計劃在亞太地區部署遠程地面發射的巡航導彈。 海軍陸戰隊還將在包圍中國沿海海域的一系列島嶼上裝備反艦導彈。

特朗普總統昨日在白宮舉行的儀式上宣布,從軍事領導人那裡收到太空部隊的旗幟,美國正在研製“超級杜邦”導彈。

他說:“我們正在建造令人難以置信的軍事裝備。”  “我們擁有超級杜邦導彈,前一天晚上聽到的聲音比他們現在擁有的速度快17倍。 您聽說過俄羅斯有5次,中國有5到6次,我們有17次。”

美國與中國的關係已經惡化到幾十年來的最低潮,特朗普總統將其歸咎於其削弱了經濟,並試圖掩蓋冠狀病毒的範圍。 儘管這些爭執尚未導致直接對抗,但美國昨天加劇了貿易戰,宣布已委託一家台灣公司在亞利桑那州開設一家計算機芯片廠,以“撤離”中國以外的技術產業。

華盛頓還宣布將限制中國電信巨頭華為的能力,該公司認為這是國家安全隱患,其在國外開發使用美國技術的產品的能力。 北京方面進行了反擊,稱准備將包括蘋果在內的美國公司列入其“不可靠的實體名單”。

美國在亞太地區的存在

南韓
28,500人
90架戰鬥機
愛國者導彈發射器
THAAD(終端高空區域防禦)反導電池

日本
50,000人
100多架戰鬥機
愛國者導彈發射器

關島
12,000名士兵
THAAD導彈電池
B-2,B-52H和B-1B戰略轟炸機的位置

在海上
羅納德·裡根號航空母艦戰鬥群
17艘帶有宙斯盾彈道導彈防禦攔截器的驅逐艦和巡洋艦



講呢d只不過想要多d軍費。


引用:
原帖由 wonderful2night 於 2020-5-17 10:02 AM 發表

講呢d只不過想要多d軍費。
只要是反中國 美國國會一定批多d軍費



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引用:
原帖由 colindale 於 2020-5-17 08:16 AM 發表

台灣10年後也凍過水

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/375568f0-96ce-11ea-b833-0d83599da676?
宜家都無力防禦台灣啦,除非打核戰。

最重要是美國已無心戀戰,只係敢揾最弱的對手打仗。



[隱藏]
引用:
原帖由 colindale 於 2020-5-17 08:16 AM 發表

台灣10年後也凍過水

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/375568f0-96ce-11ea-b833-0d83599da676?
照咁睇, 台灣嘅所謂"中華民國"會消失響歷史之中, 台灣就會成為中共名下, 類似港澳嘅特別行政區, 甚至係中央嘅直轄市。啱嘛?!



引用:
原帖由 Kai_Fong 於 2020-5-17 11:25 AM 發表




照咁睇, 台灣嘅所謂"中華民國"會消失響歷史之中, 台灣就會成為中共名下, 類似港澳嘅特別行政區, 甚至係中央嘅直轄市。啱嘛?!
good, 啱



台灣省 自首吧


引用:
原帖由 colindale 於 2020-5-17 08:20 AM 發表

華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心中國電力項目負責人,華盛頓諮詢公司顧問邦妮·格拉澤(Bonnie Glaser)所做的所有模擬研究,都針對2030年來自中國的威脅而最終以美國戰敗告終。 美國政府對東亞表示。 台灣是最動蕩的問題,因為這可能升級為與美國​​的戰爭,甚至是核戰爭。

“在五角大樓,國務院和白宮,中國現在被視為最大的威脅。 過去我們太被動了。”

北京加 ...
其實早24年前己經有一些擁有官方及美國國防部背景色彩美國智庫作出類似評估,以1996年、2003年、2010年及2017年的兩國軍力及戰力比例,出版一份中美軍力評分報告,在報告中己指出2010-2017年中國軍力己能媲美國及有地利條件下打贏美國

其實今次英國及美國煞有介事那樣敲鑼打鼓的,炒熱美國將不敵中國的理調,實為美國應想把中國拉入【新限制戰略武器條約】,原本只有美國及俄羅斯的協議國中,得以拖延中國軍力,以及戰略武器的發展

而這份泰晤士報的美國國防部軍力報告,只是一個在國際帶風向的一項消息而矣



引用:
原帖由 colindale 於 2020-5-17 08:18 AM 發表

根據五角大樓的一系列“令人大開眼界”的戰爭遊戲,美國將在與中國的海戰中被擊敗,並將努力製止對台灣的入侵
...
這句的結尾有點難以理解。
原文:The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan...
其中"would struggle to"不是"努力制止",而是"(努力,卻)難以制止"。
較準確的中譯是:根據……美國將在與中國的海戰中被擊敗,並難以制止對台灣的入侵。
struggle的常用意義是:to try very hard to do something when it is difficult or when there are a lot of problems,即"努力做某事,此事做起來有困難,或有很多問題",簡單地說,就是"難以"。



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引用:
原帖由 tam_n 於 2020-5-17 08:30 PM 發表


這句的結尾有點難以理解。
原文:The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan...
其中"would struggle to"不是"努力制止",而是"(努力,卻)難以制止"。
較準確的中譯是:根據…&he ...
原文是英文是為準確 中文版是用 google translate



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