The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of “eye-opening” war games by the Pentagon.
American defence sources have told The Times that simulated conflicts conducted by the US concluded that their forces would be overwhelmed. One war game focused on the year 2030, by which time the Chinese navy would operate new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.
The analysis also found that Beijing’s accumulation of medium-range ballistic missiles has already made every US base and any American carrier battle group operating in the Indo-Pacific Command region vulnerable to overwhelming strikes. The Pacific island of Guam, a base for American strategic bombers such as the B-2 and B-52, is now considered wholly at risk.
“China has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic [more than five times the speed of sound] missiles,” a US defence source said, meaning that US carrier groups could not oppose their Chinese counterparts “without suffering capital losses”.
The conclusions, described as “eye-opening” by one source, are supported by the most recent analysis provided by America’s leading experts on China.
Every simulation that has been conducted looking at the threat from China by 2030 have all ended up with the defeat of the US,” Bonnie Glaser, director of the China power project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a consultant for the US government on east Asia, said. “Taiwan is the most volatile issue because that could escalate to a war with the US, even to a nuclear war.
“In the Pentagon and state department and the White House, China is now seen as the biggest threat. We have been too passive in the past.”
Beijing has stepped up its military activities in the South and East China Seas, harassing ships, militarising islands whose sovereignty is claimed by others and sabre-rattling over the planned reincorporation of Taiwan. President Xi has said he wants the island back under “One China” by 2050 and is prepared to use force.
The US has no defence pact with Taiwan but has increased arms sales to help it to build a deterrent. US concerns are expected to be highlighted in the Pentagon’s 2020 China military power report, which is due in the summer.
A defence source said that repeated warnings by Admiral Philip Davidson, the regional commander, and a drive from within the Pentagon to fund hypersonic weapons to counter the Chinese threat had led to a significant switch in resources. “Mark Esper [the defence secretary] is aggressively moving to build the capabilities that we need to deter China from committing to a major confrontation,” the source said.
Hypersonic weapons are viewed as key to taking out China’s ballistic missiles capability, and the US also plans to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. Marine units are also to be armed with anti-ship missiles, along a string of islands enclosing China’s coastal seas.
President Trump announced yesterday during a White House ceremony to receive the flag of the Space Force from military leaders that the US was developing a “super-duper missile”.
“We are building incredible military equipment,” he said. “We have, I call it the super-duper missile, and I heard the other night 17 times faster than what they have right now, when you take the fastest missile we have right now. You’ve heard Russia has five times and China’s working on five or six times, we have one 17 times.”
US relations with China have deteriorated to their lowest ebb in decades as President Trump blames it for weakening the economy, and for its attempts to hide the extent of coronavirus. Although those rows have yet to result in a direct confrontation, the US intensified its trade war yesterday, announcing that it had commissioned a Taiwanese company to open a computer chip factory in Arizona to “re-shore” technology industries away from China.
Washington also announced that it would restrict the ability of the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, which it considers a national security risk, to develop products abroad that use US technology. Beijing hit back, saying it was ready to put US companies including Apple on its “unreliable entity list”.
US presence in Asia-Pacific
South Korea
28,500 troops
90 combat aircraft
Patriot missile launchers
THAAD (terminal high-altitude area defence) anti-missile battery
Japan
50,000 troops
100-plus combat aircraft
Patriot missile launchers
Guam
12,000 troops
THAAD missile batteries
Location for B-2, B-52H and B-1B strategic bombers
At sea
USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier battle group
17 destroyers and cruisers with Aegis ballistic missile defence interceptors
原帖由 colindale 於 2020-5-17 08:18 AM 發表
根據五角大樓的一系列“令人大開眼界”的戰爭遊戲，美國將在與中國的海戰中被擊敗，並將努力製止對台灣的入侵。
...
這句的結尾有點難以理解。
原文：The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan...
其中"would struggle to"不是"努力制止"，而是"（努力，卻）難以制止"。
較準確的中譯是：根據……美國將在與中國的海戰中被擊敗，並難以制止對台灣的入侵。
struggle的常用意義是：to try very hard to do something when it is difficult or when there are a lot of problems，即"努力做某事，此事做起來有困難，或有很多問題"，簡單地說，就是"難以"。
這句的結尾有點難以理解。
原文：The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan...
其中"would struggle to"不是"努力制止"，而是"（努力，卻）難以制止"。
較準確的中譯是：根據…&he ...
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